Corpus Christi, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

881
FXUS64 KCRP 061726
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1226 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- High chance of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche this
week with coastal flooding and rip currents the primary concern for
South Texas.

- A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 7 PM this evening.
Additional Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed, especially the
latter part of the week depending on tropical development in the
gulf.

- Generally dry across South Texas through the week and into the
  weekend with a low chance of rain along the coast at times.
  Higher chances over the gulf.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Weak mid level ridging and a slightly drier airmass across S TX will
keep rain chances very low to nil through the week. However, a broad
mid level trough draped across the gulf waters and a broad surface
low across the Bay of Campeche will continue to bring a medium to
high chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Middle Texas Coastal
Waters through the end of the work week. But all of this is highly
dependent on whether or not a tropical system develops across the
Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center now has a 90% chance
of development. If it does develop, it is expected to move north or
northeast, keeping the system far east of S TX. This typically
results in drier conditions on the west side of the system. Can not
rule out an isolated morning or sea breeze shower each day. The
drier conditions may also lead to much warmer temperatures across S
TX.

A mid/upper level cut off low is progged to track/develop across
West TX which would provide upper support for convective development
across Mexico on Thu/Fri. This convection has a low to very low
chance of moving across the Rio Grande and into western Webb County.

The main concern if a tropical system develops over the gulf will be
an increased risk of coastal flooding, moderate to high rip current
risk and seas possibly building up to 9-10 feet. Currently a Coastal
Flood Advisory is in effect through this evening due to a persistent
northeast flow across the northwest gulf waters pushing water up to
the dunes during times of high tide. Will not extend the advisory
through tonight and not expecting coastal flooding on Wednesday as
winds across the gulf waters will be lighter. The last high tide
earlier today reached just shy of 2 feet MSL and is expected to
reach around 1.4-1.7 feet MSL with the next high tide. Additional
Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed the latter part of the week
depending on tropical development in the gulf. Some models indicate
swell periods may increase to 9-10 seconds by Friday along with seas
building to 9-10 feet or higher due to a strengthening northeast
flow over the gulf waters. This will provide sufficient energy to
push the water up to the dunes. If the winds strengthen to 25-30
knots with seas building to around 12 feet, then tide levels at
high tide could reach 3 feet MSL and a Coastal Flood Warning would
be needed. However, chances are low that this will occur, but
will continue to monitor trends and possible tropical development.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF cycle. Light north to
northeast winds will become variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Northeasterly winds at moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) levels continue
through Wednesday before increasing to fresh and strong levels
Thursday, especially offshore. Winds later in the week are expected
to subside a bit. Late week conditions may be influenced by
potential tropical development. Keep up to date with the latest
forecasts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the
work week with mainly moderate humidity levels and weak winds.
Rain chances are low to very low, mainly along the Coastal Bend
through the week and the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  91  74  91 /  10  10   0  10
Victoria          70  95  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            71  93  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
Alice             70  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
Rockport          75  91  75  91 /  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           70  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        72  91  72  91 /  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       78  88  78  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-
     442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...TE/81